The only opportunity from reorganization is for highly motivated change agent leaders to take advantage of the chaos and confusion of reorganization to push through a reform agenda at their level. The last time this was done was in 2006-2007 by Petraeus and Company, you may call it The Surge, or Counter-Insurgency , and yes at cost.
The time before that was Perry and the last supper where the defense industrial base was gutted in 1993.
I was serving during both periods.
Neither was an unmitigated good, putting it mildly. The point is great changes can happen, if the opportunity is taken.
Yes, the transition back to a divisional mode, so soon after a GWOT-inspired brigade model, seems more reactive than thought through. The changes it seeks to make seem much more fundamental than can be addressed at that echelon.
There was some talk amongst the old timers - now retired- at the time of BCT switch that the organizational logistics and plan’s infrastructure was set up for divisions and not BCTs.
To the extent that legacy systems and people influence higher more than tactical types, this may be less forward looking reform and more nostalgic gerontocracy.
Perhaps we can call it the “Pink and Greens “ Divisions 😒
"There is one other way in which an additional layer of staff might be necessary. Increasing numbers of UAVs at all levels down to the squad represents not just an expansion of organic assets, but of command-and-control capacity."
There is a corollary to this increased capability: modern battlefields are going to be absolutely saturated with cheap sensors; Quadcopter-ferried seismometers, balloons and gliders with ELINT modules, your imagination is the limit.
In that environment, good small-team training (2-6 men) will be vital, with their radios treated like a high-risk weapon. The best Order of Battle will be one that minimizes their signature while still putting support elements where they need to be.
Are modern militaries even able to accept the autonomy and speed this will require?
Excellent point. Can imagine a huge gulf emerging between levels: invisible ghosts at the lower end, massive TOCs at the higher that simply have to dig in and defend.
Interesting reading and I was a bit concerned at how quickly you passed over the World War II answers at this level - the Regimental Combat Team and the German Kampfgruppe. Having been introduced to the subject via the experience of the various armies of the Napoleonic wars, the Union Army and to a lesser extent the Confederate Army, and then the experiences of the two world wars, I wasn't sure where you were going with this but I think you've made an excellent suggestion for centering combined arms at the brigade level (much like a WW2 US Army division) and then drawing on its resources to put together the necessary force mix.
We must return to first principles, and we must face certain known problems and defects sooner or later. This is ugly, it must be faced. Some may want to stop reading now, hit the arrow button.
Forgive my directness, the hour is very late.
While the defects below do not apply to most, they are built into the system and can no longer be worked around.
They must be faced .
First principles.
What is the point of the military?
Frankly day to day, careers.
Career is hammered in from commissioning, and now it’s hammered into the ranks down to E4 (the army E4 NCOER is a form 4100). This simply must be faced, and then thwarted.
Denied, Denounced.
Is the point of the line to support the staff? The answer in practice is yes. Certainly day to day.
Training is an interruption of more important matters, War an interruption of careers, at least if it’s combat war. Killing is controversial.
The entire personnel system must be returned to principles of duty, this means an end to resume building being mandated by the support form, and the end of up or out - up or out is a Sales Force and retail sales at that, frankly it’s Boiler Room ethics and a Boiler Room personnel system.
This doesn’t work for us, indeed we work in defiance of it, to do the right thing the regime must be ignored.
We can’t ignore it longer.
To bow to the world- there are many other ways to compensate people besides promotion such as increased responsibility means greater compensation.
There are other ways to have people leave besides not promoting them, history provides many methods.
I do dislike writing this but we need a moral reorganization, we simply stop nodding our heads and inform the bureaucracy and as needed that we haven’t so much lost our way, but we can no longer claw our way out of the misshapen paths and mires they forced us into, we know what we are doing… and on the matter of values they do not.
As they will respond to the effect that they’ll look into it, I suggest informing them … that IT is looking into them. <
I am available to be recalled to active duty to say exactly this to their faces, regardless of difficulty, if it helps I when active… did. Thank you and God Bless.
Goldwater Nichols needs to go, what replaces it is a good question. Joint commands may have made sense at one point, but when joint command assignments are just career builders, and the joint commands work to hamper unit integrity then it is a problem no longer a solution. The Marine Corps and the regiment coupled with the Marine Air Ground Task Force structure works well within its congressional mandate of Title X. Whether that has broader applications is something worth examining. It’s currently a mess across the entire DOD, civilian and military. A major look in the mirror is needed. Doubt anyone will like the reflection that they recover. Great post by the way! Well done!
Leadership. That doesn’t come from laws or Congress.
Leaders at every level say;
Enough. We’re going to do the right thing, or goodbye.
This is a social and moral reformation- or total collapse.
We can always go total mercenary if moral reformation doesn’t appeal, that being the strong and general trend of our government and certainly the nation’s current moral compass and climate.
Change the program or get with the program. Perhaps the LLC monetize everything nation needs best an LLC and monetized army, in no way do I appeal or reduce to the absurd here… indeed that course is merely bowing to reality.
Leadership as we knew and know and understand it has been lost at the general officer level since the Obama purges. Obama did to our military what Stalin did to his, only he didn’t shoot the best and brightest he just forced them out. Now? We have a clown show at the top. Start with the current CNO diversity pick, and then head to the oldest standing structure in Washington DC, the current Commandant of the Marine Corps and you see the problem in spades. Shoot down an incoming F18 Super Hornet? Nothing to see here folks it’s all good, someone just mistook a Houthi drone worth $100k for a $60m airplane with two Naval Aviators ($1m each in training value) and shot it down with a $600 million upgrade on a Ticonderoga Cruiser, that was repainted with paint that rusts when exposed to corrosive effects of salt water, so our environmental sensitivity can be shown and glorified to the whole world when our rust buckets slide into forgiven ports of call. On and on it goes.
All Contractor Military. All LLC military, not subject to UCMJ.
No national, sworn military will be used for expeditionary operations. That shall be mercenaries only, to abuse trust and patriotism for gain is evil and once caught out insane to continue. Align the means with the true ends of gain. It must he emphasized that already for decades the mercenary is treated with respect by the elites, the patriotic and sworn as a dangerous fool or pariah - despite the mercenary nearly always being a military veteran or policeman or both.
The National military shall exist for the defense of the nation’s soil, US flagged ships exclusively.
The worldly answer, the correct policy given our situation is to make the all contract expeditionary military the Prime Agents abroad and maintain competency and a pool of leadership. Note that morals are a long term survival code, and that they are already more moral than what we have now - in a test of the nation’s mettle the leaders can come from this Contractor pool. Align Ends with Means and Ways - in this case sane and so more moral leadership- will align.
America wants to be a Privateer Nation? Then DO SO.
It's interesting to think about now since automated warfare is beginning to take off at breakaway speed. I think formations will grow in equipment size as they fill with drones of all sorts, but shrink in terms of manning. The need for staffs will shrink as well in favor of c2 systems (or c5isrwhatever) to manage the data being generated from drone augmented formations. Decisions will almost certainly need to be made faster than a staff can provide. As I think about it, I wonder about a future in which staffs as they CURRENTLY look survive at all. Amazon doesn't have staffs like the army does, for example.
I think there will be a greater need for officers to manage drone augmented formations, and a diminished need for NCO. NCOs could take on additional roles of managing small group soldiers plus AIs. Augmented formations would be making decisions that might have formerly been made at the division or corps level relative the size of the formation, so the officers might be more senior than we are used to. Majors would finally have a job that wouldn't piss people off constantly.
Also i think we're talking about maneuver formations here, but I can see more horse-power being needed in sustainment formations, a noticable asymmetry between the size and echelon of the sustainment formation relative to the augmented maneuver formation it supports.
Regimental formations could definitely be a form of all this, but I think I see the future formation looking more like a beefed up sf-type AOB than beefed up CAV squadron (maybe something between both?).
The first all-human staff at the next higher echelon would be interesting too. I imagine it would need more interagency representation to carry out missions between crisis and conflict that an augmented formation could be better suited for, so maybe something looking more like a JOC or a SOTF.
I tend to the opposite view, that staffs will get much bigger, for reasons outlined here: https://x.com/bazaarofwar/status/1781673481664442427. It's different from the incentives of a business like Amazon, which competes to cut costs as aggressively as possible: militaries compete to EXPEND resources as quickly as possible - and AI expands the limits of what any one person can do.
Maybe. But consider MDMP. Everyone is talking about how we could automate most orders production using an LLM. A step action process like MDMP should be able to be automated easily. Your "staffer" could be presented with like 3 best options for his input, just amazon now. Basically the hard work of staffing could be automated away now.
The only opportunity from reorganization is for highly motivated change agent leaders to take advantage of the chaos and confusion of reorganization to push through a reform agenda at their level. The last time this was done was in 2006-2007 by Petraeus and Company, you may call it The Surge, or Counter-Insurgency , and yes at cost.
The time before that was Perry and the last supper where the defense industrial base was gutted in 1993.
I was serving during both periods.
Neither was an unmitigated good, putting it mildly. The point is great changes can happen, if the opportunity is taken.
Yes, the transition back to a divisional mode, so soon after a GWOT-inspired brigade model, seems more reactive than thought through. The changes it seeks to make seem much more fundamental than can be addressed at that echelon.
There was some talk amongst the old timers - now retired- at the time of BCT switch that the organizational logistics and plan’s infrastructure was set up for divisions and not BCTs.
To the extent that legacy systems and people influence higher more than tactical types, this may be less forward looking reform and more nostalgic gerontocracy.
Perhaps we can call it the “Pink and Greens “ Divisions 😒
Reform can quite happen at any level.
"There is one other way in which an additional layer of staff might be necessary. Increasing numbers of UAVs at all levels down to the squad represents not just an expansion of organic assets, but of command-and-control capacity."
There is a corollary to this increased capability: modern battlefields are going to be absolutely saturated with cheap sensors; Quadcopter-ferried seismometers, balloons and gliders with ELINT modules, your imagination is the limit.
In that environment, good small-team training (2-6 men) will be vital, with their radios treated like a high-risk weapon. The best Order of Battle will be one that minimizes their signature while still putting support elements where they need to be.
Are modern militaries even able to accept the autonomy and speed this will require?
Excellent point. Can imagine a huge gulf emerging between levels: invisible ghosts at the lower end, massive TOCs at the higher that simply have to dig in and defend.
This.
Interesting reading and I was a bit concerned at how quickly you passed over the World War II answers at this level - the Regimental Combat Team and the German Kampfgruppe. Having been introduced to the subject via the experience of the various armies of the Napoleonic wars, the Union Army and to a lesser extent the Confederate Army, and then the experiences of the two world wars, I wasn't sure where you were going with this but I think you've made an excellent suggestion for centering combined arms at the brigade level (much like a WW2 US Army division) and then drawing on its resources to put together the necessary force mix.
Thanks Robert—I tried to avoid getting too deep into historical examples, it's easy to get lost there!
Yes, I know and you're right - but it's basically what I bring to the conversation though I try not to hijack good work!
We must return to first principles, and we must face certain known problems and defects sooner or later. This is ugly, it must be faced. Some may want to stop reading now, hit the arrow button.
Forgive my directness, the hour is very late.
While the defects below do not apply to most, they are built into the system and can no longer be worked around.
They must be faced .
First principles.
What is the point of the military?
Frankly day to day, careers.
Career is hammered in from commissioning, and now it’s hammered into the ranks down to E4 (the army E4 NCOER is a form 4100). This simply must be faced, and then thwarted.
Denied, Denounced.
Is the point of the line to support the staff? The answer in practice is yes. Certainly day to day.
Training is an interruption of more important matters, War an interruption of careers, at least if it’s combat war. Killing is controversial.
The entire personnel system must be returned to principles of duty, this means an end to resume building being mandated by the support form, and the end of up or out - up or out is a Sales Force and retail sales at that, frankly it’s Boiler Room ethics and a Boiler Room personnel system.
This doesn’t work for us, indeed we work in defiance of it, to do the right thing the regime must be ignored.
We can’t ignore it longer.
To bow to the world- there are many other ways to compensate people besides promotion such as increased responsibility means greater compensation.
There are other ways to have people leave besides not promoting them, history provides many methods.
I do dislike writing this but we need a moral reorganization, we simply stop nodding our heads and inform the bureaucracy and as needed that we haven’t so much lost our way, but we can no longer claw our way out of the misshapen paths and mires they forced us into, we know what we are doing… and on the matter of values they do not.
As they will respond to the effect that they’ll look into it, I suggest informing them … that IT is looking into them. <
I am available to be recalled to active duty to say exactly this to their faces, regardless of difficulty, if it helps I when active… did. Thank you and God Bless.
Goldwater Nichols needs to go, what replaces it is a good question. Joint commands may have made sense at one point, but when joint command assignments are just career builders, and the joint commands work to hamper unit integrity then it is a problem no longer a solution. The Marine Corps and the regiment coupled with the Marine Air Ground Task Force structure works well within its congressional mandate of Title X. Whether that has broader applications is something worth examining. It’s currently a mess across the entire DOD, civilian and military. A major look in the mirror is needed. Doubt anyone will like the reflection that they recover. Great post by the way! Well done!
Leadership. That doesn’t come from laws or Congress.
Leaders at every level say;
Enough. We’re going to do the right thing, or goodbye.
This is a social and moral reformation- or total collapse.
We can always go total mercenary if moral reformation doesn’t appeal, that being the strong and general trend of our government and certainly the nation’s current moral compass and climate.
Change the program or get with the program. Perhaps the LLC monetize everything nation needs best an LLC and monetized army, in no way do I appeal or reduce to the absurd here… indeed that course is merely bowing to reality.
Leadership as we knew and know and understand it has been lost at the general officer level since the Obama purges. Obama did to our military what Stalin did to his, only he didn’t shoot the best and brightest he just forced them out. Now? We have a clown show at the top. Start with the current CNO diversity pick, and then head to the oldest standing structure in Washington DC, the current Commandant of the Marine Corps and you see the problem in spades. Shoot down an incoming F18 Super Hornet? Nothing to see here folks it’s all good, someone just mistook a Houthi drone worth $100k for a $60m airplane with two Naval Aviators ($1m each in training value) and shot it down with a $600 million upgrade on a Ticonderoga Cruiser, that was repainted with paint that rusts when exposed to corrosive effects of salt water, so our environmental sensitivity can be shown and glorified to the whole world when our rust buckets slide into forgiven ports of call. On and on it goes.
Yes. Hence the stark choice:
Moral and social revolution in military values,
XOR (Exclusive Or)
All Contractor Military. All LLC military, not subject to UCMJ.
No national, sworn military will be used for expeditionary operations. That shall be mercenaries only, to abuse trust and patriotism for gain is evil and once caught out insane to continue. Align the means with the true ends of gain. It must he emphasized that already for decades the mercenary is treated with respect by the elites, the patriotic and sworn as a dangerous fool or pariah - despite the mercenary nearly always being a military veteran or policeman or both.
The National military shall exist for the defense of the nation’s soil, US flagged ships exclusively.
The worldly answer, the correct policy given our situation is to make the all contract expeditionary military the Prime Agents abroad and maintain competency and a pool of leadership. Note that morals are a long term survival code, and that they are already more moral than what we have now - in a test of the nation’s mettle the leaders can come from this Contractor pool. Align Ends with Means and Ways - in this case sane and so more moral leadership- will align.
America wants to be a Privateer Nation? Then DO SO.
It's interesting to think about now since automated warfare is beginning to take off at breakaway speed. I think formations will grow in equipment size as they fill with drones of all sorts, but shrink in terms of manning. The need for staffs will shrink as well in favor of c2 systems (or c5isrwhatever) to manage the data being generated from drone augmented formations. Decisions will almost certainly need to be made faster than a staff can provide. As I think about it, I wonder about a future in which staffs as they CURRENTLY look survive at all. Amazon doesn't have staffs like the army does, for example.
I think there will be a greater need for officers to manage drone augmented formations, and a diminished need for NCO. NCOs could take on additional roles of managing small group soldiers plus AIs. Augmented formations would be making decisions that might have formerly been made at the division or corps level relative the size of the formation, so the officers might be more senior than we are used to. Majors would finally have a job that wouldn't piss people off constantly.
Also i think we're talking about maneuver formations here, but I can see more horse-power being needed in sustainment formations, a noticable asymmetry between the size and echelon of the sustainment formation relative to the augmented maneuver formation it supports.
Regimental formations could definitely be a form of all this, but I think I see the future formation looking more like a beefed up sf-type AOB than beefed up CAV squadron (maybe something between both?).
The first all-human staff at the next higher echelon would be interesting too. I imagine it would need more interagency representation to carry out missions between crisis and conflict that an augmented formation could be better suited for, so maybe something looking more like a JOC or a SOTF.
Very fun to think about, thanks for this one.
I tend to the opposite view, that staffs will get much bigger, for reasons outlined here: https://x.com/bazaarofwar/status/1781673481664442427. It's different from the incentives of a business like Amazon, which competes to cut costs as aggressively as possible: militaries compete to EXPEND resources as quickly as possible - and AI expands the limits of what any one person can do.
Maybe. But consider MDMP. Everyone is talking about how we could automate most orders production using an LLM. A step action process like MDMP should be able to be automated easily. Your "staffer" could be presented with like 3 best options for his input, just amazon now. Basically the hard work of staffing could be automated away now.
That's just the first-order effect. Then there's all the extra detail the general asks for now that it's so easy to gin up a basic order.
Yup. THAT will be the future responsibility of the staff officer. Exploring the possibilities outside the model.
Nice target