Overshadowed by stories of dwindling munitions stocks and limited production capacity, the Ukraine War has revealed another shortfall facing modern armies: manpower.
I suspect that it would be hard to come by reliable data but it would be an interesting aside to this conversation to note the number of immigrants enlisting in Western militaries for economic reasons and as a path to citizenship. You already noted the demographic shift in industrialized and now post-industrial societies - increasing the collective pressure for the use of 'robots' of various kinds for high risk roles.
Agreed, that will probably be the first solution that the US and other industrialized countries look to. The places to watch will be those middle-income countries that don't attract nearly as many immigrants.
I have this feeling that the next few decades are gonna get real messy and the demand for mercenaries, if not skyrocket, will increase by a lot.
I expect populations from the Middle East, Africa, South and Central Asia, and maybe Southeast Asia to be potential recruits by the west (North America, Europe, Russia, Australia).
High end boutique forces is a great way to describe it. I also like the military Cult of technology and the Special Forces. Thanks for all your hard work I very much enjoy your insightful articles. Cheers mate.
It seems like mass drone armies would be the industrial response to this, no? It is a lot cheaper and easier to replace drones (or improve them) than to hire mercenary armies. Not to mention much more predictable from the point of view of militaries.
They can do a lot, but not everything. Boots on the ground are still needed to storm trenches, occupy ground, and maintain a presence - especially since comms will not always be uninterrupted. And even for those capabilities that seem just over the horizon, we're still not there yet...
- The capabilities of drones is only going up (burrowing drones that can penetrate trenches seem possible)
- Humans are only becoming more expensive especially in the developed world
- The cost of raising and preparing a human for war (16 years at minimum unless assuming child soldiers) enormously exceeds the price/time required for even extremely expensive drones
Fundamentally the capacity for drones to improve vastly exceeds the capacity for humans to improve and humans are so vulnerable and costly to replace (even before mentioning the intense political/social problems war losses cause on the homefront) I can't see how drones and other similar tech won't outcompete humans in on the ground warfare.
Interruption of comms is a fair point but I expect autonomous fallback programming will be built into drones as a failsafe.
Scary times imho. We haven't seen a truly digital 21st century war yet but I think over the next 10-15 years it will become apparent the role of humans as direct combatants in war will become limited (they will unfortunately likely remain the target).
I like drones, as a tool not a trade-off. To effectively deploy drones (in their current and near-future capacity) there still need to be an advanced human element as the foundation of ground battles. Hell, even air battle.
And besides, if the cost of war becomes just pennies for lost Technologies instead of human casualties, then the future of warfare is doomed. What keeps nations/proxies/mercenaries/leaders and decision makers from all out war all the time is that the cause and effect is human life.
I suspect that it would be hard to come by reliable data but it would be an interesting aside to this conversation to note the number of immigrants enlisting in Western militaries for economic reasons and as a path to citizenship. You already noted the demographic shift in industrialized and now post-industrial societies - increasing the collective pressure for the use of 'robots' of various kinds for high risk roles.
Agreed, that will probably be the first solution that the US and other industrialized countries look to. The places to watch will be those middle-income countries that don't attract nearly as many immigrants.
I have this feeling that the next few decades are gonna get real messy and the demand for mercenaries, if not skyrocket, will increase by a lot.
I expect populations from the Middle East, Africa, South and Central Asia, and maybe Southeast Asia to be potential recruits by the west (North America, Europe, Russia, Australia).
High end boutique forces is a great way to describe it. I also like the military Cult of technology and the Special Forces. Thanks for all your hard work I very much enjoy your insightful articles. Cheers mate.
Thanks! Wish I could claim credit for coining that one, forget exactly where I heard it.
It seems like mass drone armies would be the industrial response to this, no? It is a lot cheaper and easier to replace drones (or improve them) than to hire mercenary armies. Not to mention much more predictable from the point of view of militaries.
They can do a lot, but not everything. Boots on the ground are still needed to storm trenches, occupy ground, and maintain a presence - especially since comms will not always be uninterrupted. And even for those capabilities that seem just over the horizon, we're still not there yet...
What I observe that informs my view is that:
- The costs of drones is only going down
- The capabilities of drones is only going up (burrowing drones that can penetrate trenches seem possible)
- Humans are only becoming more expensive especially in the developed world
- The cost of raising and preparing a human for war (16 years at minimum unless assuming child soldiers) enormously exceeds the price/time required for even extremely expensive drones
Fundamentally the capacity for drones to improve vastly exceeds the capacity for humans to improve and humans are so vulnerable and costly to replace (even before mentioning the intense political/social problems war losses cause on the homefront) I can't see how drones and other similar tech won't outcompete humans in on the ground warfare.
Interruption of comms is a fair point but I expect autonomous fallback programming will be built into drones as a failsafe.
Scary times imho. We haven't seen a truly digital 21st century war yet but I think over the next 10-15 years it will become apparent the role of humans as direct combatants in war will become limited (they will unfortunately likely remain the target).
Maybe. But drones replacing humans is still a long way off, whereas mercenaries can be recruited today.
I like drones, as a tool not a trade-off. To effectively deploy drones (in their current and near-future capacity) there still need to be an advanced human element as the foundation of ground battles. Hell, even air battle.
And besides, if the cost of war becomes just pennies for lost Technologies instead of human casualties, then the future of warfare is doomed. What keeps nations/proxies/mercenaries/leaders and decision makers from all out war all the time is that the cause and effect is human life.