Overshadowed by stories of dwindling munitions stocks and limited production capacity, the Ukraine War has revealed another shortfall facing modern armies: manpower. Both Russia and Ukraine have faced recruitment difficulties, foreshadowing problems that other countries may encounter in the near future. The post-Cold War shift from large mass-mobilization armies to high-end boutique forces has followed a broader economic trend of meeting high labor costs with investments in technology, yet this is proving inadequate even for military operations well short of full-scale war.
I suspect that it would be hard to come by reliable data but it would be an interesting aside to this conversation to note the number of immigrants enlisting in Western militaries for economic reasons and as a path to citizenship. You already noted the demographic shift in industrialized and now post-industrial societies - increasing the collective pressure for the use of 'robots' of various kinds for high risk roles.
I have this feeling that the next few decades are gonna get real messy and the demand for mercenaries, if not skyrocket, will increase by a lot.
I expect populations from the Middle East, Africa, South and Central Asia, and maybe Southeast Asia to be potential recruits by the west (North America, Europe, Russia, Australia).
High end boutique forces is a great way to describe it. I also like the military Cult of technology and the Special Forces. Thanks for all your hard work I very much enjoy your insightful articles. Cheers mate.
It seems like mass drone armies would be the industrial response to this, no? It is a lot cheaper and easier to replace drones (or improve them) than to hire mercenary armies. Not to mention much more predictable from the point of view of militaries.
I suspect that it would be hard to come by reliable data but it would be an interesting aside to this conversation to note the number of immigrants enlisting in Western militaries for economic reasons and as a path to citizenship. You already noted the demographic shift in industrialized and now post-industrial societies - increasing the collective pressure for the use of 'robots' of various kinds for high risk roles.
I have this feeling that the next few decades are gonna get real messy and the demand for mercenaries, if not skyrocket, will increase by a lot.
I expect populations from the Middle East, Africa, South and Central Asia, and maybe Southeast Asia to be potential recruits by the west (North America, Europe, Russia, Australia).
High end boutique forces is a great way to describe it. I also like the military Cult of technology and the Special Forces. Thanks for all your hard work I very much enjoy your insightful articles. Cheers mate.
It seems like mass drone armies would be the industrial response to this, no? It is a lot cheaper and easier to replace drones (or improve them) than to hire mercenary armies. Not to mention much more predictable from the point of view of militaries.