One of the frustrating things about much of the early commentary around the Iran war was how it framed the relationship between military force and political objectives.
I think the reason a lot of commentary focuses on depletion of military munitions, at least from political officials, is that most everyone acknowledges the US is severely disadvantaged in terms of economic leverage.
I.e. that it can only be a black hole for munitions? A short, successful operation would also be a problem for stockpiles - similar things were said re Prosperity Guardian - but it does look a whole lot worse with no end in sight.
Deep analysis, but I think it gives the Iranian regime too much credit. Its survival is not proof of strategic genius. It is a mix of repression, fanaticism, corruption, and Europe’s repeated failure to support the Americans and Israelis when they try to stop it.
I wouldn't call it strategic genius, just a keen awareness of their trump card and a willingness to play it - the sort of thing others should have noted too. No amount of European support could have altered this fundamental reality.
One thing that is genuinely impressive is the way the Iranians decentralized their C2 in anticipation of decapitation strikes. Fanaticism, yes, but intelligently applied.
Their decentralized C2 was a stand out for me. The 'missile cities' got the lions share of media scrutiny but the lay out and planning behind their Command and Control needs a lot of after action review and Lessons Learnt. How were those plans laid out? What was the process, in what was an environment supposedly badly compromised by Israeli and US intelligence?
I don’t think this is true. Iran has demonstrated real battlefield capability by holding the strait of hormuz and American and allied bases under fire control. Iran has taken losses of course. That said, it’s inaccurate to say america won the battle and lost the war. Both sides have achieved tactical successes. Iran has achieved relatively more because it was able to translate its tactical success into strategic success. The USN cannot transit or protect the SoH simply because Iran has fire superiority.
I think the reason a lot of commentary focuses on depletion of military munitions, at least from political officials, is that most everyone acknowledges the US is severely disadvantaged in terms of economic leverage.
I.e. that it can only be a black hole for munitions? A short, successful operation would also be a problem for stockpiles - similar things were said re Prosperity Guardian - but it does look a whole lot worse with no end in sight.
Deep analysis, but I think it gives the Iranian regime too much credit. Its survival is not proof of strategic genius. It is a mix of repression, fanaticism, corruption, and Europe’s repeated failure to support the Americans and Israelis when they try to stop it.
I wouldn't call it strategic genius, just a keen awareness of their trump card and a willingness to play it - the sort of thing others should have noted too. No amount of European support could have altered this fundamental reality.
One thing that is genuinely impressive is the way the Iranians decentralized their C2 in anticipation of decapitation strikes. Fanaticism, yes, but intelligently applied.
Their decentralized C2 was a stand out for me. The 'missile cities' got the lions share of media scrutiny but the lay out and planning behind their Command and Control needs a lot of after action review and Lessons Learnt. How were those plans laid out? What was the process, in what was an environment supposedly badly compromised by Israeli and US intelligence?
I don’t think this is true. Iran has demonstrated real battlefield capability by holding the strait of hormuz and American and allied bases under fire control. Iran has taken losses of course. That said, it’s inaccurate to say america won the battle and lost the war. Both sides have achieved tactical successes. Iran has achieved relatively more because it was able to translate its tactical success into strategic success. The USN cannot transit or protect the SoH simply because Iran has fire superiority.
https://substack.com/@afrahmohammed1/note/c-288390761?r=7qjmoi
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